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Thread: TSR Runs and Climate Change

  1. #1

    Join Date
    Dec 2014

    TSR Runs and Climate Change

    I know there are a lot of uncertainties over current climate change predictions and applications within hydraulic modelling, but I was after some input on how people currently apply current climate change predictions to model runs, in particular time series rainfall.

    Design storms are relatively 'simple' with a standard uplift factor applicable ranging from anywhere between 5 - 30% obviously depending on location, design horizon etc.

    However, from looking at time series rainfall there seems to be a lot more complications. Without going into too much detail the general consensus from UK CC predictions is that winters will get wetter and summers will get drier, but the storms in the summer will increase in intensity and frequency.

    Therefore it seems applying a blanket uplift to TSR will over-predict for example spill performance of overflows when looking at including climate change.

    Or am I looking into it too much and a blanket uplift approach is acceptable?

  2. #2
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    I don't think blanket uplift is acceptable, but that doesn't get us much further. It's a complex problem, and the uncertainties of made-up numbers on top of made-up numbers really is enormous. One solution is to use baseline and disturbed time series from UKCIP to generate "current" and "future" TSR in Stormpac (if that's what you're doing), but you will probably have to obtain several projections and pick one that fits with expectations - an uncertain business in itself. Ideally, you'd run a whole load of them and get a good average prediction, but that's not all that practical and Stormpac has limits on how much input it can accept and how much output it can produce. Be VERY careful, describe exactly what you've done in your reporting and be sure to stress the uncertainties involved!

  3. #3
    Forum Moderator

    Innovyze Employee

    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    I see the English EA have changed the way that allowances for Climate change are represented:-

  4. #4

    Dave Searby

    Quote Originally Posted by Duncan Kitts View Post
    I see the English EA have changed the way that allowances for Climate change are represented:-
    This is also of concern to us, although I cant offer much help,

    Recent work by Marray Dale of CH2M:

    Also Ciwem rainfall guide:

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